**Notes: Housing costs are all in CDN 2010 $ $ , commodities at historical costs (ie. no inflation adjustment) converted to CND at the historical common yearly price. Commodity costs are at historical yearly averages, as are the exchange rates, so I am not picking the best or lowest position in the cycle, just an Yearly regular. Housing costs based on Toronto, an Urban place with Housing rates relatively greater than the national typical, but these Toronto figures should be deemed comparatively when seeking at other markets, or Nationally ie. Toronto avg. house value Jan 2011 is 0K, Canadian Average Homeprice Dec. 2010 = 5K, Dec. 2009 = 8K. It is interesting, could use some far more evaluation for sure. The 2010 kinds look a little bit out due to the CND transfer 1.14 in 2009 to one.03 in 2010, and just used par for 2011 even though, I assume we will regular a lot more robust against the USD. *** This is BULL VLOG seven.1. This VLOG is in response to a viewer comment from BULL VLOG seven, and a little bit distinct than my normal silver discussions, but I really really feel they are all related, and a big believer in Fiscal, Market, Wealth cycles and how to use them to kinds benefit. For case in point, correct now I assume the Canadian Housing marketplace is overvalued, so I action absent and area my cash in something I feel is undervalued, say silver. I will maintain my personal silver holdings(my organization functions on spreads, not silver moves) till a time I experience that Silver is fairly valued, then I will look to the subsequent issue …
I heard that during the Great Depression one could buy a house for $600. that would be roughly 540 Oz. Silver. Great vid.
This is a real contribution … thanks for all your efforts.
@charronfamilyconnect Tricky as so many factors looking that far out, and it is not even far, just so much uncertainty. So housing is going to be devalued against other assets, but also fall nominally due to interest rate hikes. I think it would be possible to see by 2013 even if rates move fast avg. house price in TO around $300K (30% down), I think silver do $65 into 2012, maybe $95 into 2013, so in 2013 pure guess 3200 oz. I will start paying close attention and be ready to move around 7900 o
@charronfamilyconnect True, the food inflation is scary though, which is really a supply and demand issue. I tend to think silver and palladium, and agricultural commodities fall into fundamental supply and demand mismatches moving forward.
All will move up on fear and speculation, but once people feel safe again, whenever that may be, the commodities with the fundamental s&d imbalances will remain high–kind of like good and bad companies in a market crash, good recover quick, bad stay down
@losolomo What you described is exactly what peak oil is. It is getting harder, and harder to get oil from the earth (ie. need to drill deeper, more energy used). At some point we use more energy to extract the remaining oil then we get from the oil itself.
Peak-oil is a very interesting theory, it is not cheap to get oil out of the oilsand, and even more expensive when you get into deep water drilling.
If oil were massively abundant these co.s would not be drilling in expensive, risky areas
In all honestly arent most commodities going up due to speculation??? Which is product of uncertaintity, fear etc…..
how many ounzes of silver to you think will buy avg house in toronto in 2015?
peak oil is nonsense. when the russians drilled 40 thousand feet below ground and found oil, oil is made by the earth.I doubt fossils created it down there. oil is just being controlled and withheld, for he who controls oil controlls the world
@Donninator1 pt.2″…the diff. is that US prices have already been falling nominally and CAD have actually risen so this cycle will bring the two closer this time around..but sticking with 9x and 500oz in US we can expect around 4500oz will buy avg house in toronto.
To remember is these numbers are what we can expect with HIGH inflation (like late 70s)…if US and/or CAD have a currency crisis or hyperinflation all bets are off and it will be very hard to find and measure value in anything”
@Donninator1 Another viewer sent me this, and I think it is very intuitive:Its hard to say how close the the US and CAD house prices will meet at the low when measured in silver but I think it would be a safe bet that CAD will be at the most 9X greater then US. With that said, in 79/80 around 816oz slv will get you a avrg house in the US compared to 7900 (9.7X) in CAD…”part 1
@Donninator1 Hi Thanks, That is True, Malony was talking about US market which is a bit different. A few of us are discussing this in the buchanbullbullion.blogspot.com entry as it allows much longer entries and thoughts.
All the best,
Jim